ObamaCare By The Numbers

Obamacare: What Are the Numbers?

One year into the implementation of many of the Affordable Care Act’s key features- including Medicaid expansion and the opening of the health insurance exchanges, numbers are coming in regarding new insurance enrollments in the past year. The numbers are based off of two surveys reported in September, 2014: the Centers for Disease Control National Health Interview Survey and the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey. The Current Population Survey only gave the estimated percentage of uninsured people in 2013 (13.4% or 42 million Americans). On the other hand, The National Health Interview Survey gave the estimated number of uninsured people for both 2013 and 2014 and compared the two figures. A preliminary report with figures from January to March 2014 estimates that in 2014 there are 3.8 million fewer uninsured people than in 2013.

However, more concrete numbers were provided by the Heritage Foundation on October 22. The Heritage Foundation found that insurance enrollment in individual market plans increased by 6,254,564 individuals and that Medicaid enrollment increased by 6,072,651 individuals. This seemingly large increase in insurance coverage is marked, but still not up to the government’s predictions for 2014. The increase in insurance coverage, however, is not as great as first glance indicates. Although there was an increased enrollment in individual market plans of over six million individuals (both on and off exchanges), there was simultaneously a decline of 3,788,978 individuals enrolled in employer-sponsored group plans. Hence the net individual market plan enrollment is only 2,465,586 individuals.

1- The changing number of uninsured in 2014

It is interesting to note that there was an enormous increase in the number of new Medicaid enrollments. 26 states and Washington, D.C. have chosen to implement expanded Medicaid programs in 2014. Of over six million new Medicaid enrollments in 2014, 94% occurred in states that implemented Medicaid expansion. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues. In 2015, Pennsylvania will implement expanded Medicaid, opening it up to those making up to 138% of the Federal Poverty Level. Perhaps in future years, more states will join the bandwagon and expand their Medicaid programs and begin to reduce inequality.

For reduction of inequality is what the Affordable Care Act is- theoretically- all about. The enrollment patterns in 2014 are reflective of that goal. The Medicaid expansion in 26 states and Washington, D.C. has evidently allowed many insurance who could not afford private insurance plans. Many of the new enrollments are of people who are traditionally underprivileged- those living in rural areas; young people (defined as 18-34); and certain racial groups, such as black and Hispanic individuals; and women.

2- Uninsured rates in 2014 by County

Moving forward, it will be interesting to see whether the number of uninsured will continue to decline, and whether more states will expand Medicaid. As the Open Enrollment Period for individual market plans will begin on November 15, there is concern about technological issues such as occurred last year. There is also concern that people may not enroll for health insurance due to higher premiums. In light of 2014’s only moderate success in increased enrollment and the deterrents from obtaining health insurance, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has modified its 2015 predictions. Abandoning the 13 million figure, the HHS now predicts that 9-9.9 million will newly obtain health insurance in 2015.

Until next time,

Andrew Herman

AH Insurance Services, Inc.